The Coronavirus disease-2019, abbreviated to COVID-19, is caused by the strain and/or the respiratory illness called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SAR-CoV-2). The disease was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and later rapidly spread across the world leading to many deaths across all countries of the world. The disease was declared a pandemic by the WHO on the 11th March 2020. At the earlier stages of the disease, there were no pharmaceutical measures like vaccines and/or medications available that could be used to either treat or reduce the spread of the virus. As a result, countries across the world reverted to implementing several non-pharmaceutical measures to end or at least to reduce the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Compartmental models for epidemics have been found to be the best way to understand the epidemic. The results of such studies may help prepare control strategies in advance. The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental model is one of such models that have been applied by different researchers to identify the effects of intervention strategies imposed by governments to reduce the spread. The study aims to model the change patterns in COVID-19 deaths particularly those occurred in Botswana from 14th May 2020 to 3rd March 2022 using the SIRD model. Since COVID-19 pandemic is dependent on when and how the lockdowns, isolation, quarantine, social distancing and other precautionary measures were imposed, predictions with realistic assumptions based on the data are made. In general, the numbers of deaths in Botswana have been rising since 14th May 2020 until 3rd March 2022. COVID-19 will escalate at a very low transmission at an exponential growth rate of 0.1118. The transmission of COVID-19 in Botswana will spread in the population and such spread may cause an epidemic (𝑅0 = 1.1259).

Lebotsamang Abidile is a senior research officer at BA ISAGO University in Gaborone, Botswana. He is a PhD candidate and holds a master of arts in statistics from the University of Botswana and has additional qualifications in monitoring and evaluation. He has over 10 years of experience in research, specializing in statistical analysis, monitoring and evaluation. He is skilled in the use of statistical tools such as SPSS, R and Eviews. Since 2023, he has led various research initiatives at BA ISAGO University, focusing on research design, data analysis and the development of innovative methods. His research interests include statistical applications in diverse fields, monitoring and evaluation, and institutional program development. He has contributed to studies on employability, labour market outcomes and alcohol abuse in Botswana, aiming to address societal issues through evidence-based research.